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Complete historical sample
Match played 22 September 2026 at 19:05. Later result: Lost · Recorded 23 September 2026 at 11:00.
The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.
Experimental model estimate; independently validated profitability has not been established.
MLBLost
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
22 September 2026 at 19:05· Prague time
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Published selection
Tampa Bay Rays
- Recorded odds
- 2.20
- Estimated chance
- 77.8 %
Outcome risk: Lower · An estimate, not a certainty
Why this selection?
Tampa Bay Rays: model estimate 77.84%, odds 2.20 at espnbet, estimated return 71.25% per unit staked. The estimate uses team form. The result is uncertain.
Recent games and scoring averagesSee the results behind the form chart
- New York Yankees
- Tampa Bay Rays
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Runs / gameSame scale · 0–5.6
Home
New York Yankees
- Sample
- 10 games
- Rest
- 2 d
For5.6
Against4.3
Latest resultsNewest first
20 Sept 2026 · Arizona Diamondbacks
Away
Tampa Bay Rays
- Sample
- 10 games
- Rest
- 2 d
For4.6
Against2.1
Latest resultsNewest first
20 Sept 2026 · Boston Red Sox
Up to 5 prior results, newest first. Saved averages can use a larger sample. A short sample does not establish team strength.
Recorded
What does your price change?
Tampa Bay Rays
Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.
Model scenario
Published estimate
77.8 %
Fixed at publication
Break-even chance
45.5 %
Changes with your odds
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Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.
Difference
+32.39 pp
Above the model’s break-even point
A model comparison, not a measured advantage.
Two possible net outcomes
If won
+120 CZK
Estimated chance 77.8 %
If lost
−100 CZK
Estimated chance 22.2 %
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Payout incl. stake if won220 CZK
Model average (EV)
+71.25 CZK
Probability-weighted average, not the result of this match.
Saved sources and match evidence
Match evidence
MLB2026Regular season
Saved inputs for this analysis. Expand results to see the matches.
Advanced data and methodology
- Model version
- poisson-form-v1-shadow
- Input coverage
- 80 %
- Published
- 21 Sept 2026, 23:00 · Prague
- Price source
- espnbet
- Bookmaker updated
- 21 Sept 2026, 22:59 · Prague
- Expected return (model)
- 71.2 %
- Full Kelly (model calculation)
- 59.4 %
Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it
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