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Complete historical sample
Match played 30 June 2026 at 02:40. Later result: Lost · Recorded 30 June 2026 at 22:14.
The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.
MLBLost
Colorado Rockies vs Miami Marlins
30 June 2026 at 02:40· Prague time
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Published selection
Under 11.5 runs
- Recorded odds
- 1.80
- Estimated chance
- 74 %
Outcome risk: Lower · An estimate, not a certainty
Published · 29 June 2026 at 11:45
The selection and estimate are saved at publication. Your inputs in the calculator only change the comparison.
No saved team form
This analysis has no verified form snapshot.
Why this selection?
Historical analysis: its commentary lacks a verified data snapshot. The probability and odds are unchanged; the figures shown are recalculated from them.
What does your price change?
Under 11.5 runs
Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.
Model scenario
Published estimate
74 %
Fixed at publication
Break-even chance
55.6 %
Changes with your odds
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Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.
Difference
+18.44 pp
Above the model’s break-even point
A model comparison, not a measured advantage.
Two possible net outcomes
If won
+80 CZK
Estimated chance 74 %
If lost
−100 CZK
Estimated chance 26 %
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Payout incl. stake if won180 CZK
Model average (EV)
+33.2 CZK
Probability-weighted average, not the result of this match.
Arithmetic corrected from the original published inputs. Original records remain unchanged.
Advanced data and methodology
- Model version
- Historical version not recorded
- Input coverage
- —
- Published
- 29 Jun 2026, 11:45 · Prague
- Price source
- —
- Bookmaker updated
- Not recorded
- Expected return (model)
- 33.2 %
- Full Kelly (model calculation)
- 41.5 %
Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it
Your next step
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