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Complete historical sample
Match played 11 October 2026 at 23:00. Later result: Won · Recorded 12 October 2026 at 11:00.
The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.
Experimental model estimate; independently validated profitability has not been established.
NHLWon
Washington Capitals vs Seattle Kraken
11 October 2026 at 23:00· Prague time
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Published selection
Seattle Kraken
- Recorded odds
- 3.64
- Estimated chance
- 34.9 %
Outcome risk: Higher · An estimate, not a certainty
Why this selection?
Seattle Kraken: model estimate 34.91%, odds 3.64 at Marathon Bet, estimated return 27.06% per unit staked. The estimate uses odds from 14 bookmakers and team form. Below odds of about 2.86, the model estimates a loss. At the start of the NHL season, team form includes last season’s regular-season results with reduced weight. The result is uncertain.
Recent games and scoring averagesSee the results behind the form chart
- Washington Capitals
- Seattle Kraken
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Goals / gameSame scale · 0–4.2
Home
Washington Capitals
- Sample
- 10 games
- Rest
- 2 d
For3.6
Against2.3
Latest resultsNewest first
9 Oct 2026 · NYR
Away
Seattle Kraken
- Sample
- 5 games
- Rest
- 2 d
For4.2
Against2.8
Latest resultsNewest first
9 Oct 2026 · DET
Up to 5 prior results, newest first. Saved averages can use a larger sample. A short sample does not establish team strength.
Recorded
What does your price change?
Seattle Kraken
Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.
Model scenario
Published estimate
34.9 %
Fixed at publication
Break-even chance
27.5 %
Changes with your odds
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Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.
Difference
+7.43 pp
Above the model’s break-even point
A model comparison, not a measured advantage.
Two possible net outcomes
If won
+264 CZK
Estimated chance 34.9 %
If lost
−100 CZK
Estimated chance 65.1 %
Loading chart…
Payout incl. stake if won364 CZK
Model average (EV)
+27.06 CZK
Probability-weighted average, not the result of this match.
What we found
Saved at publication · 11 October 2026 at 20:01
- 1Seattle has not confirmed whether Daccord or Grubauer starts in goal, adding uncertainty to the Kraken's chances.
- 2The Kraken are without defenseman Ryan Lindgren for four to six weeks and forward Jacob Melanson, thinning their roster.
- 3Washington is missing defensemen Roy and Sandin, and center Dubois is questionable with illness, which may help Seattle.
All findings and sources
Sources
Capitals top-line center Pierre-Luc Dubois missed Saturday practice with illness and is questionable, potentially disrupting Washington's top line
www.nhl.com · 11 October 2026 at 02:00
Capitals defenseman Matt Roy is out for a third straight game with a lower-body injury, and Rasmus Sandin remains out long-term with a knee injury, thinning Washington's blue line
www.thespread.com · 11 October 2026 at 02:00
Saved sources and match evidence
Match evidence
NHL20262027Regular season
Saved inputs for this analysis. Expand results to see the matches.
Advanced data and methodology
Best odds 3.64 (Marathon Bet) · fair price 2.96 · play from 2.86
- Model version
- consensus-blend-v3
- Input coverage
- 65 %
- Published
- 11 Oct 2026, 20:01 · Prague
- Price source
- Marathon Bet
- Bookmaker updated
- 11 Oct 2026, 19:45 · Prague
- Expected return (model)
- 27.1 %
- Full Kelly (model calculation)
- 10.2 %
Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it
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