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Complete historical sample
Match played 3 October 2026 at 19:00. Later result: Lost · Recorded 3 October 2026 at 23:00.
The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.
Experimental model estimate; independently validated profitability has not been established.
MLBLost
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox
3 October 2026 at 19:00· Prague time
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Published selection
Over 6.5
- Recorded odds
- 1.82
- Estimated chance
- 56.8 %
Outcome risk: Moderate · An estimate, not a certainty
Why this selection?
Over 6.5: model estimate 56.77%, odds 1.82 at 1xBet, estimated return 3.32% per unit staked. The estimate uses odds from 7 bookmakers and team form. Below odds of about 1.76, the model estimates a loss. At the start of the MLB postseason, team form includes this season’s regular-season results with reduced weight. The result is uncertain.
Recent games and scoring averagesSee the results behind the form chart
- Cleveland Guardians
- Chicago White Sox
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Runs / gameSame scale · 0–6.7
Home
Cleveland Guardians
- Sample
- 10 games
- Rest
- 6 d
For5.3
Against3.2
Latest resultsNewest first
27 Sept 2026 · Kansas City Royals
Away
Chicago White Sox
- Sample
- 10 games
- Rest
- 3 d
For6.7
Against3.7
Latest resultsNewest first
30 Sept 2026 · Houston Astros
Up to 5 prior results, newest first. Saved averages can use a larger sample. A short sample does not establish team strength.
Recorded
What does your price change?
Over 6.5
Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.
Model scenario
Published estimate
56.8 %
Fixed at publication
Break-even chance
54.9 %
Changes with your odds
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Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.
Difference
+1.82 pp
Above the model’s break-even point
A model comparison, not a measured advantage.
Two possible net outcomes
If won
+82 CZK
Estimated chance 56.8 %
If lost
−100 CZK
Estimated chance 43.2 %
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Payout incl. stake if won182 CZK
Model average (EV)
+3.32 CZK
Probability-weighted average, not the result of this match.
What we found
Saved at publication · 3 October 2026 at 12:01
- 1Cleveland starts Parker Messick (2.56 ERA), against whom the White Sox hit just .209, which could limit Chicago's scoring.
- 2The White Sox plan a bullpen game with opener Hagen Smith, which may make it easier for Cleveland to score.
- 3The Progressive Field forecast is calm and neutral, so weather should not strongly affect the run total.
All findings and sources
Sources
The White Sox will start rookie reliever Hagen Smith as an opener for a planned bullpen game in ALDS Game 1, rather than a traditional starter.
chicago.suntimes.com · 2 October 2026 at 02:00
Guardians rookie Parker Messick, who posted a 2.56 ERA in 32 starts this season, will start Game 1, giving Cleveland a clear starting-pitcher edge over Chicago's bullpen game plan.
heavy.com · 1 October 2026 at 02:00
Saved sources and match evidence
Match evidence
MLB2026Playoffs
Saved inputs for this analysis. Expand results to see the matches.
Advanced data and methodology
Best odds 1.82 (1xBet) · fair price 1.84 · play from 1.76
- Model version
- consensus-blend-v3
- Input coverage
- 80 %
- Published
- 3 Oct 2026, 12:01 · Prague
- Price source
- 1xBet
- Bookmaker updated
- 3 Oct 2026, 11:43 · Prague
- Expected return (model)
- 3.3 %
- Full Kelly (model calculation)
- 4.1 %
Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it
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