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Complete historical sample
Match played 10 October 2026 at 01:00. Later result: Lost · Recorded 10 October 2026 at 11:00.
The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.
Experimental model estimate; independently validated profitability has not been established.
NHLLost
Washington Capitals vs New York Rangers
10 October 2026 at 01:00· Prague time
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Published selection
New York Rangers
- Recorded odds
- 3.06
- Estimated chance
- 45.5 %
Outcome risk: Higher · An estimate, not a certainty
Why this selection?
New York Rangers: model estimate 45.53%, odds 3.06 at 1xBet, estimated return 39.33% per unit staked. The estimate uses odds from 14 bookmakers and team form. Below odds of about 2.20, the model estimates a loss. At the start of the NHL season, team form includes last season’s regular-season results with reduced weight. The result is uncertain.
Recent games and scoring averagesSee the results behind the form chart
- Washington Capitals
- New York Rangers
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Goals / gameSame scale · 0–3.6
Home
Washington Capitals
- Sample
- 10 games
- Rest
- 2 d
For3.6
Against2.9
Latest resultsNewest first
7 Oct 2026 · PIT
Away
New York Rangers
- Sample
- 5 games
- Rest
- 3 d
For3.2
Against1.6
Latest resultsNewest first
6 Oct 2026 · NYI
Up to 5 prior results, newest first. Saved averages can use a larger sample. A short sample does not establish team strength.
Recorded
What does your price change?
New York Rangers
Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.
Model scenario
Published estimate
45.5 %
Fixed at publication
Break-even chance
32.7 %
Changes with your odds
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Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.
Difference
+12.85 pp
Above the model’s break-even point
A model comparison, not a measured advantage.
Two possible net outcomes
If won
+206 CZK
Estimated chance 45.5 %
If lost
−100 CZK
Estimated chance 54.5 %
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Payout incl. stake if won306 CZK
Model average (EV)
+39.33 CZK
Probability-weighted average, not the result of this match.
What we found
Saved at publication · 9 October 2026 at 20:01
- 1Washington will be without defenseman Rasmus Sandin and forward Patrick Thomas, which may slightly help the Rangers.
- 2The Rangers have won four straight games since losing their opener, suggesting they arrive in good form.
- 3Rangers center Joe Veleno is on injured reserve and will miss the game, though he is mainly a depth player.
All findings and sources
Sources
Rangers center Joe Veleno is on injured reserve and will miss the game against Washington.
insidetherink.com · 9 October 2026 at 02:00
Since losing their season opener to the Bruins, the Rangers have won four consecutive games, arriving in Washington with strong momentum.
russianmachineneverbreaks.com · 9 October 2026 at 02:00
Saved sources and match evidence
Match evidence
NHL20262027Regular season
Saved inputs for this analysis. Expand results to see the matches.
Advanced data and methodology
Best odds 3.06 (1xBet) · fair price 2.35 · play from 2.20
- Model version
- consensus-blend-v3
- Input coverage
- 65 %
- Published
- 9 Oct 2026, 20:01 · Prague
- Price source
- 1xBet
- Bookmaker updated
- 9 Oct 2026, 19:43 · Prague
- Expected return (model)
- 39.3 %
- Full Kelly (model calculation)
- 19.1 %
Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it
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