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Complete historical sample
Match played 6 October 2026 at 01:30. Later result: Lost · Recorded 6 October 2026 at 11:00.
The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.
Experimental model estimate; independently validated profitability has not been established.
NHLLost
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Winnipeg Jets
6 October 2026 at 01:30· Prague time
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Published selection
Pittsburgh Penguins
- Recorded odds
- 1.97
- Estimated chance
- 65 %
Outcome risk: Moderate · An estimate, not a certainty
Why this selection?
Pittsburgh Penguins: model estimate 65.04%, odds 1.97 at 1xBet, estimated return 28.13% per unit staked. The estimate uses odds from 15 bookmakers and team form. Below odds of about 1.54, the model estimates a loss. At the start of the NHL season, team form includes last season’s regular-season results with reduced weight. The result is uncertain.
Recent games and scoring averagesSee the results behind the form chart
- Pittsburgh Penguins
- Winnipeg Jets
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Goals / gameSame scale · 0–4.8
Home
Pittsburgh Penguins
- Sample
- 10 games
- Rest
- 2 d
For4.8
Against3.6
Latest resultsNewest first
3 Oct 2026 · MTL
Away
Winnipeg Jets
- Sample
- 10 games
- Rest
- 1 d
For2.4
Against3.8
Latest resultsNewest first
4 Oct 2026 · DET
Up to 5 prior results, newest first. Saved averages can use a larger sample. A short sample does not establish team strength.
Recorded
What does your price change?
Pittsburgh Penguins
Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.
Model scenario
Published estimate
65 %
Fixed at publication
Break-even chance
50.8 %
Changes with your odds
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Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.
Difference
+14.28 pp
Above the model’s break-even point
A model comparison, not a measured advantage.
Two possible net outcomes
If won
+97 CZK
Estimated chance 65 %
If lost
−100 CZK
Estimated chance 35 %
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Payout incl. stake if won197 CZK
Model average (EV)
+28.13 CZK
Probability-weighted average, not the result of this match.
What we found
Saved at publication · 5 October 2026 at 20:01
- 1Pittsburgh is without forwards Bryan Rust and Justin Brazeau and defenseman Ryan Graves, which slightly thins their lineup.
- 2Sergei Murashov makes his season debut in Pittsburgh's net, so his form is still an unknown.
- 3Winnipeg's top goalie Connor Hellebuyck is suspended, and Pittsburgh scored 13 goals in two wins, which favors the home side.
All findings and sources
Sources
The Pittsburgh Penguins have scored 13 goals in their first two games (2-0-0), with Crosby and Malkin leading the offense, heading into the Jets matchup
www.nhl.com · 5 October 2026 at 02:00
Penguins forward Bryan Rust (upper body, week-to-week) practiced at morning skate but has not taken contact yet and will miss his third straight game
www.nhl.com · 5 October 2026 at 02:00
The Penguins are also without Justin Brazeau (lower body) and Ryan Graves (knee) due to injury
Saved sources and match evidence
Match evidence
NHL20262027Regular season
Saved inputs for this analysis. Expand results to see the matches.
Advanced data and methodology
Best odds 1.97 (1xBet) · fair price 1.60 · play from 1.54
- Model version
- consensus-blend-v3
- Input coverage
- 65 %
- Published
- 5 Oct 2026, 20:01 · Prague
- Price source
- 1xBet
- Bookmaker updated
- 5 Oct 2026, 19:45 · Prague
- Expected return (model)
- 28.1 %
- Full Kelly (model calculation)
- 29 %
Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it
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