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Complete historical sample
Match played 15 October 2026 at 19:00. Later result: Won · Recorded 15 October 2026 at 23:00.
The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.
Experimental model estimate; independently validated profitability has not been established.
MLBWon
Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays
15 October 2026 at 19:00· Prague time
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Published selection
Under 6.5
- Recorded odds
- 2.10
- Estimated chance
- 49.1 %
Outcome risk: Higher · An estimate, not a certainty
Why this selection?
Under 6.5: model estimate 49.07%, odds 2.10 at William Hill, estimated return 3.04% per unit staked. The estimate uses odds from 6 bookmakers and team form. Below odds of about 2.04, the model estimates a loss. The result is uncertain.
Recent games and scoring averagesSee the results behind the form chart
- Cleveland Guardians
- Tampa Bay Rays
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Runs / gameSame scale · 0–4.4
Home
Cleveland Guardians
- Sample
- 7 games
- Rest
- 2 d
For4.4
Against3
Latest resultsNewest first
13 Oct 2026 · Tampa Bay Rays
Away
Tampa Bay Rays
- Sample
- 5 games
- Rest
- 2 d
For3.2
Against2.6
Latest resultsNewest first
13 Oct 2026 · Cleveland Guardians
Up to 5 prior results, newest first. Saved averages can use a larger sample. A short sample does not establish team strength.
Recorded
What does your price change?
Under 6.5
Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.
Model scenario
Published estimate
49.1 %
Fixed at publication
Break-even chance
47.6 %
Changes with your odds
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Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.
Difference
+1.45 pp
Above the model’s break-even point
A model comparison, not a measured advantage.
Two possible net outcomes
If won
+110 CZK
Estimated chance 49.1 %
If lost
−100 CZK
Estimated chance 50.9 %
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Payout incl. stake if won210 CZK
Model average (EV)
+3.04 CZK
Probability-weighted average, not the result of this match.
What we found
Saved at publication · 15 October 2026 at 12:01
- 1Guardians starter Gavin Williams has a 1.54 ERA with 24 strikeouts in the ALDS, which points toward lower scoring.
- 2The Rays start Griffin Jax, a former reliever in his first playoff start, so earlier bullpen use adds some uncertainty.
- 3The game was moved to 1 p.m. ET due to forecast rain, lowering the chance weather disrupts play.
All findings and sources
Sources
Game 3 start time was moved from 6 p.m. ET to 1 p.m. ET due to forecasted rain Thursday night in Cleveland.
www.mlb.com · 14 October 2026 at 02:00
Guardians starter Gavin Williams is on regular rest and dominant form: 1.54 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings during the ALDS.
www.mlb.com · 14 October 2026 at 02:00
Rays are starting Griffin Jax, a converted reliever making his first career playoff start, who posted a 0.90 ERA over his past five appearances; Nick Martinez (ALDS Game 3 starter) is being held back to start Game 4.
Saved sources and match evidence
Match evidence
MLB2026Playoffs
Saved inputs for this analysis. Expand results to see the matches.
Advanced data and methodology
Best odds 2.10 (William Hill) · fair price 2.09 · play from 2.04
- Model version
- consensus-blend-v3
- Input coverage
- 80 %
- Published
- 15 Oct 2026, 12:01 · Prague
- Price source
- William Hill
- Bookmaker updated
- 15 Oct 2026, 11:45 · Prague
- Expected return (model)
- 3 %
- Full Kelly (model calculation)
- 2.8 %
Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it
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