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Complete historical sample

Match played 26 September 2026 at 00:45. Later result: Won · Recorded 26 September 2026 at 11:00.

The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.

Experimental model estimate; independently validated profitability has not been established.

MLBWon

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets

26 September 2026 at 00:45· Prague time

My saved analyses →

Bookmarks and favourites stay in this browser. Star a team or league to personalise the schedule.

Published selection

Washington Nationals

Recorded odds: 1.95
Estimated chance: 54.4 %

Outcome risk: Higher · An estimate, not a certainty

Published · 25 September 2026 at 20:01

The selection and estimate are saved at publication. Your inputs in the calculator only change the comparison.

Compare my odds

Team form at a glance

Up to 5 prior games · shared 0–100% scale

Loading chart…

A snapshot of recent results, not a prediction of this match.

How to read the five axes

Five observed rates from up to five verified prior games, on the same 0–100% scale. This describes a short sample, not a prediction or a team strength score.

Wins = games won. Unbeaten = wins or draws (an overtime loss is a loss). Scored = games with at least one goal/run. Clean sheets = games without conceding. Scoring share = scored / (scored + conceded). The axes overlap; polygon size is not a combined rating.

Why this selection?

Washington Nationals: model estimate 54.44%, odds 1.95 at caesars, estimated return 6.29% per unit staked. The estimate uses odds from 9 bookmakers and team form. Below odds of about 1.84, the model estimates a loss. The result is uncertain.

Recent games and scoring averagesSee the results behind the form chart

Washington Nationals
New York Mets

Loading chart…

Runs / gameSame scale · 0–4.7

Home

Washington Nationals

Sample: 10 games
Rest: 2 d

For4.7

Against3.9

Latest resultsNewest first

23 Sept 2026 · Detroit Tigers

Away

New York Mets

Sample: 10 games
Rest: 1 d

For3.9

Against4

Latest resultsNewest first

24 Sept 2026 · Texas Rangers

Up to 5 prior results, newest first. Saved averages can use a larger sample. A short sample does not establish team strength.

Recorded 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 · Prague

What does your price change?

Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.

Your odds

Model stake (CZK)

Model scenario

Published estimate

54.4 %

Fixed at publication

Break-even chance

51.3 %

Changes with your odds

Loading chart…

Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.

Difference

+3.16 pp

Above the model’s break-even point

A model comparison, not a measured advantage.

What we found

Saved at publication · 25 September 2026 at 20:01

1No verifiable pre-game information was found for the Nationals vs. Mets game on September 25, 2026.
2Probable pitchers, lineups, and injuries are not yet known because the game is far in advance.
3The pick rests solely on model and market data without additional context.

Saved sources and match evidence

Match evidence

MLB2026Regular season

Saved inputs for this analysis. Expand results to see the matches.

Washington Nationals

Home

Latest recorded resultsW4:2W3:1L2:9L3:5W8:5

Newest first. Scores from this team’s perspective.

Detroit Tigers23 Sept 20264 : 2
Detroit Tigers22 Sept 20263 : 1
Detroit Tigers21 Sept 20262 : 9
St. Louis Cardinals20 Sept 20263 : 5
St. Louis Cardinals19 Sept 20268 : 5

Scored / game: 4.7
Conceded / game: 3.9
Recorded games: 10
Rest days: 2

Loading chart…

About this sample

Matching season and phase: 10

Averages use the saved form inputs. The result strip shows up to five usable earlier games. Entries with missing scores or dates, duplicates and games on or after the match day are excluded.

Injury reportsUnavailable

Injury information is unavailable in this snapshot.

New York Mets

Away

Latest recorded resultsL1:3W7:2W6:3L2:7W10:3

Newest first. Scores from this team’s perspective.

Texas Rangers24 Sept 20261 : 3
Texas Rangers23 Sept 20267 : 2
Texas Rangers22 Sept 20266 : 3
Philadelphia Phillies20 Sept 20262 : 7
Philadelphia Phillies19 Sept 202610 : 3

Scored / game: 3.9
Conceded / game: 4
Recorded games: 10
Rest days: 1

Loading chart…

About this sample

Matching season and phase: 10

Averages use the saved form inputs. The result strip shows up to five usable earlier games. Entries with missing scores or dates, duplicates and games on or after the match day are excluded.

Injury reportsUnavailable

Injury information is unavailable in this snapshot.

Probable pitchers

Start not confirmed

Washington Nationals: Not recorded
New York Mets: Not recorded

Model and market

caesars · saved odds

Difference

+5.21 pp

Loading chart…

Bookmaker margin: 4.05 %
Reference odds: 2.03

How to read this comparison

The two outcomes of the same binary market are scaled to 100%. This removes the proportional margin, not uncertainty. The reference is not a measured winning chance; a difference can also mean model error.

Data sources

Home form · Away form
statsapi.mlb.com
Retrieved
Not recorded
Odds
sportsgameodds.com
Retrieved
25 Sept 2026, 20:00 · Prague

Data timestampsPrague

Context saved: 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 · Prague
Selected odds captured: 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 · Prague
Bookmaker odds updated: 25 Sept 2026, 19:53 · Prague

Retrieval time is when the source was read, not when its information changed. Times are shown in Prague time; date-only records keep the provider’s calendar day.

Limits of these inputs

Confirmed lineups are not recorded. Missing injury entries do not confirm a healthy squad.
A short score history does not establish team strength or predictive accuracy.
Probable pitchers are not confirmed starters. No pitcher-performance estimate or quantified adjustment is recorded here.
Odds imply a price threshold. EV depends on the model estimate and does not establish future profit.
These are saved inputs, not a live feed. Their capture times do not by themselves prove they were available before the match.

Advanced data and methodology

Best odds 1.95 (caesars) · fair price 2.00 · play from 1.84

Model version: consensus-blend-v2
Input coverage: 65 %
Published: 25 Sept 2026, 20:01 · Prague
Price source: caesars
Bookmaker updated: 25 Sept 2026, 19:53 · Prague
Expected return (model): 6.3 %
Full Kelly (model calculation): 6.6 %

Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it

Your next step

Get the context for more matches

Free access or Premium for 399 CZK/month. See exactly what each plan includes.

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Result history How it works

All analyses

Complete historical sample

Match played 26 September 2026 at 00:45. Later result: Won · Recorded 26 September 2026 at 11:00.

The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.

Experimental model estimate; independently validated profitability has not been established.

MLBWon

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets

26 September 2026 at 00:45· Prague time

My saved analyses →

Bookmarks and favourites stay in this browser. Star a team or league to personalise the schedule.

Published selection

Washington Nationals

Recorded odds: 1.95
Estimated chance: 54.4 %

Outcome risk: Higher · An estimate, not a certainty

Published · 25 September 2026 at 20:01

The selection and estimate are saved at publication. Your inputs in the calculator only change the comparison.

Compare my odds

Team form at a glance

Up to 5 prior games · shared 0–100% scale

Loading chart…

A snapshot of recent results, not a prediction of this match.

How to read the five axes

Five observed rates from up to five verified prior games, on the same 0–100% scale. This describes a short sample, not a prediction or a team strength score.

Why this selection?

Recent games and scoring averagesSee the results behind the form chart

Washington Nationals
New York Mets

Loading chart…

Runs / gameSame scale · 0–4.7

Home

Washington Nationals

Sample: 10 games
Rest: 2 d

For4.7

Against3.9

Latest resultsNewest first

23 Sept 2026 · Detroit Tigers

Away

New York Mets

Sample: 10 games
Rest: 1 d

For3.9

Against4

Latest resultsNewest first

24 Sept 2026 · Texas Rangers

Up to 5 prior results, newest first. Saved averages can use a larger sample. A short sample does not establish team strength.

Recorded 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 · Prague

What does your price change?

Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.

Your odds

Model stake (CZK)

Model scenario

Published estimate

54.4 %

Fixed at publication

Break-even chance

51.3 %

Changes with your odds

Loading chart…

Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.

Difference

+3.16 pp

Above the model’s break-even point

A model comparison, not a measured advantage.

What we found

Saved at publication · 25 September 2026 at 20:01

1No verifiable pre-game information was found for the Nationals vs. Mets game on September 25, 2026.
2Probable pitchers, lineups, and injuries are not yet known because the game is far in advance.
3The pick rests solely on model and market data without additional context.

Saved sources and match evidence

Match evidence

MLB2026Regular season

Saved inputs for this analysis. Expand results to see the matches.

Washington Nationals

Home

Latest recorded resultsW4:2W3:1L2:9L3:5W8:5

Newest first. Scores from this team’s perspective.

Detroit Tigers23 Sept 20264 : 2
Detroit Tigers22 Sept 20263 : 1
Detroit Tigers21 Sept 20262 : 9
St. Louis Cardinals20 Sept 20263 : 5
St. Louis Cardinals19 Sept 20268 : 5

Scored / game: 4.7
Conceded / game: 3.9
Recorded games: 10
Rest days: 2

Loading chart…

About this sample

Matching season and phase: 10

Averages use the saved form inputs. The result strip shows up to five usable earlier games. Entries with missing scores or dates, duplicates and games on or after the match day are excluded.

Injury reportsUnavailable

Injury information is unavailable in this snapshot.

New York Mets

Away

Latest recorded resultsL1:3W7:2W6:3L2:7W10:3

Newest first. Scores from this team’s perspective.

Texas Rangers24 Sept 20261 : 3
Texas Rangers23 Sept 20267 : 2
Texas Rangers22 Sept 20266 : 3
Philadelphia Phillies20 Sept 20262 : 7
Philadelphia Phillies19 Sept 202610 : 3

Scored / game: 3.9
Conceded / game: 4
Recorded games: 10
Rest days: 1

Loading chart…

About this sample

Matching season and phase: 10

Averages use the saved form inputs. The result strip shows up to five usable earlier games. Entries with missing scores or dates, duplicates and games on or after the match day are excluded.

Injury reportsUnavailable

Injury information is unavailable in this snapshot.

Probable pitchers

Start not confirmed

Washington Nationals: Not recorded
New York Mets: Not recorded

Model and market

caesars · saved odds

Difference

+5.21 pp

Loading chart…

Bookmaker margin: 4.05 %
Reference odds: 2.03

How to read this comparison

Data sources

Home form · Away form
statsapi.mlb.com
Retrieved
Not recorded
Odds
sportsgameodds.com
Retrieved
25 Sept 2026, 20:00 · Prague

Data timestampsPrague

Context saved: 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 · Prague
Selected odds captured: 25 Sept 2026, 20:00 · Prague
Bookmaker odds updated: 25 Sept 2026, 19:53 · Prague

Retrieval time is when the source was read, not when its information changed. Times are shown in Prague time; date-only records keep the provider’s calendar day.

Limits of these inputs

Confirmed lineups are not recorded. Missing injury entries do not confirm a healthy squad.
A short score history does not establish team strength or predictive accuracy.
Probable pitchers are not confirmed starters. No pitcher-performance estimate or quantified adjustment is recorded here.
Odds imply a price threshold. EV depends on the model estimate and does not establish future profit.
These are saved inputs, not a live feed. Their capture times do not by themselves prove they were available before the match.

Advanced data and methodology

Best odds 1.95 (caesars) · fair price 2.00 · play from 1.84

Model version: consensus-blend-v2
Input coverage: 65 %
Published: 25 Sept 2026, 20:01 · Prague
Price source: caesars
Bookmaker updated: 25 Sept 2026, 19:53 · Prague
Expected return (model): 6.3 %
Full Kelly (model calculation): 6.6 %

Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it

Your next step

Get the context for more matches

Free access or Premium for 399 CZK/month. See exactly what each plan includes.

Create a free account Compare membership plans

Result history How it works