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Complete historical sample
Match played 21 September 2026 at 01:20. Later result: Lost · Recorded 21 September 2026 at 11:00.
The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.
Experimental model estimate; independently validated profitability has not been established.
MLBLost
Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers
21 September 2026 at 01:20· Prague time
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Published selection
Over 7.5
- Recorded odds
- 1.93
- Estimated chance
- 75.4 %
Outcome risk: Lower · An estimate, not a certainty
Why this selection?
Over 7.5: model estimate 75.41%, odds 1.93 at draftkings, estimated return 45.88% per unit staked. The estimate uses team form. The result is uncertain.
Recent games and scoring averagesSee the results behind the form chart
- Baltimore Orioles
- Milwaukee Brewers
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Runs / gameSame scale · 0–6.9
Home
Baltimore Orioles
- Sample
- 10 games
- Rest
- 1 d
For4.6
Against4.7
Latest resultsNewest first
19 Sept 2026 · Milwaukee Brewers
Away
Milwaukee Brewers
- Sample
- 10 games
- Rest
- 1 d
For6.9
Against3.9
Latest resultsNewest first
19 Sept 2026 · Baltimore Orioles
Up to 5 prior results, newest first. Saved averages can use a larger sample. A short sample does not establish team strength.
Recorded
What does your price change?
Over 7.5
Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.
Model scenario
Published estimate
75.4 %
Fixed at publication
Break-even chance
51.8 %
Changes with your odds
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Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.
Difference
+23.59 pp
Above the model’s break-even point
A model comparison, not a measured advantage.
Two possible net outcomes
If won
+93 CZK
Estimated chance 75.4 %
If lost
−100 CZK
Estimated chance 24.6 %
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Payout incl. stake if won193 CZK
Model average (EV)
+45.53 CZK
Probability-weighted average, not the result of this match.
Saved sources and match evidence
Match evidence
MLBSeason status unavailable
Saved inputs for this analysis. Expand results to see the matches.
Advanced data and methodology
- Model version
- poisson-form-v1-shadow
- Input coverage
- 55 %
- Published
- 20 Sept 2026, 23:22 · Prague
- Price source
- draftkings
- Bookmaker updated
- 20 Sept 2026, 22:57 · Prague
- Expected return (model)
- 45.9 %
- Full Kelly (model calculation)
- 49.1 %
Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it
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