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Complete historical sample
Match played 9 September 2026 at 00:40. Later result: Lost · Recorded 9 September 2026 at 11:00.
The sections below describe the estimate and inputs saved before the match. The recorded outcome is separate and does not change that estimate.
MLBLost
Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros
9 September 2026 at 00:40· Prague time
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Published selection
Under 8.5 runs
- Recorded odds
- 1.95
- Estimated chance
- 70 %
Outcome risk: Lower · An estimate, not a certainty
Why this selection?
Historical analysis: its commentary lacks a verified data snapshot. The probability and odds are unchanged; the figures shown are recalculated from them.
What does your price change?
Under 8.5 runs
Enter the odds you see. Compare them with the published estimate and explore both possible outcomes.
Model scenario
Published estimate
70 %
Fixed at publication
Break-even chance
51.3 %
Changes with your odds
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Compare the estimate with the chance needed to cover your stake at these odds.
Difference
+18.72 pp
Above the model’s break-even point
A model comparison, not a measured advantage.
Two possible net outcomes
If won
+95 CZK
Estimated chance 70 %
If lost
−100 CZK
Estimated chance 30 %
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Payout incl. stake if won195 CZK
Model average (EV)
+36.5 CZK
Probability-weighted average, not the result of this match.
Arithmetic corrected from the original published inputs. Original records remain unchanged.
Advanced data and methodology
- Model version
- Historical version not recorded
- Input coverage
- —
- Published
- 8 Sept 2026, 11:00 · Prague
- Price source
- —
- Bookmaker updated
- Not recorded
- Expected return (model)
- 36.5 %
- Full Kelly (model calculation)
- 38.4 %
Model estimate from data and market · how we calculate it
Your next step
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